Saturday, October 4, 2014

The Boston Red Stockings won the National Association championship for the 4th consecutive year in 1875 and had the top 3 position players in the league and the top Pitcher in the league as well.  In 1876 everything will change, and remember the names of my 4 all stars for 1875.

Ross Barnes regains his MVP crown again with another dominate season.  Defensively, he regains his past form and prevents 45.7 runs for his team, and leads the league in that category, while he loses the best hitter crown just barely to Red Stockings 1st Baseman Cal McVey.  Barnes hits for a higher average and gets more stolen bases, while McVey has more doubles, triples, and homeruns.  Meanwhile, Deacon White hit higher than either Barnes or McVey with a .367 average but less stolen bases or total bases than either, but was a plus defender and had the best single season of any catcher in the National Association. 

Al Spaulding was again the best pitcher in the league, posting a 54-5 record, keeping the baseball in the ball park, walking few batters, and striking out 75 batters, and being among the elite hitting batters (but not the silver slugger) for pitchers, and 7th best batter on his very talented team.

On the season, Boston scored 10.1 runs a game, and teams that were not Boston scored 5.55 runs a game.  Meanwhile they gave up only 4.2 runs a game, leading to a 71-8 record and a .899 winning percentage, establishing a record that has never been beaten and will almost certainly never be beaten.  To break this record in a 162 game schedule, a team would have to win 146 games, 30 games better than the 116 win Seattle Mariners in 2001.  Aside from the 4 all stars above, Boston could have played with 5 wooden Indians as the expression goes, and still won the championship.  (A supposition that would be challenged and confirmed in 1876 in the first season of the National League.) 

My Choice for rookie of the year for 1875 is Bill Harbidge, who played for the 3rd place Hartford Dark Blues.  The 20 year old batted .240 and played 5 positions, splitting his time between catcher and everywhere else.  Most rookies in 1875 played for teams that folded during the year or during the previous year, and many batters were not able to get the requisite 135 at bats. 


During the season of 1875 All 4 of my 1875 all-stars signed contracts for the 1876 season with the Chicago White Stockings.  I wonder how that will all come out.

Best By Position Silver Slugger Fantastic Fielders
P Al Spalding George Bechtel
C Deacon White Deacon White Deacon White
1B Cal McVey Cal McVey Tim Murnane
2B Ross Barnes Ross Barnes Ross Barnes
3B Ezra Sutton Bill Craver Ezra Sutton
SS Davy Force George Wright Davy Force
OF Lip Pike Andy Leonard Count Gedney
OF Paul Hines Lip Pike Tom York
OF Joe Battin Jim O'Rourke Paul Hines
MVP Ross Barnes Cal McVey Ross Barnes

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Derek Jeter is literally the very worst fielder in the history of professional baseball by my estimation.  Don’t get me wrong, has been a great hitter, but it would have been better to put him at DH.  By my estimation he is also the best hitting shortstop of all time and somewhere around the 200th best player of all time, making him what should be a border line Hall of Fame candidate, but unfortunately they have not yet made me king of the universe.  See here for more details about my calculation for defensive runs.
Calling Jeter the worst fielder in the history of professional baseball is a little unfair, I admit.  To make this list, you have to be a negative defender for a lot of years, ie you have to be a good hitter.  Mediocre hitters who are a train wreck on the field don’t get to make this list, but here are the 25 players who have failed to prevent the most runs (thus creating runs for the opposition) of all time.

Player Start End CRP
Derek Jeter 1995 2013 -280.272
Harry Heilmann 1914 1932 -276.499
Manny Ramirez 1993 2010 -249.144
Gary Sheffield 1988 2009 -229.766
Ed McKean 1887 1899 -227.991
Bill Madlock 1973 1987 -227.58
Larry Doyle 1907 1920 -226.304
Tommy Dowd 1891 1901 -217.048
Jason Giambi 1995 2012 -216.156
Harmon Killebrew 1954 1975 -212.2
Bobby Murcer 1965 1983 -211.946
Dave Winfield 1973 1995 -211.599
Rogers Hornsby 1915 1937 -210.467
Sam Crawford 1899 1917 -208.011
Jack Rowe 1879 1890 -206.661
Jim Bottomley 1922 1937 -204.286
Babe Herman 1926 1945 -204.263
Chipper Jones 1993 2012 -202.975
Jeff Burroughs 1970 1985 -202.311
Greg Luzinski 1970 1984 -200.275
Doggie Miller 1884 1896 -198.624
Carney Lansford 1978 1992 -196.492
Pinky Higgins 1930 1946 -194.786
Ruben Sierra 1986 2006 -194.107
Howard Johnson 1982 1995 -193.664


In the interest of fairness, here are the top ten shortstops in Runs Created 
by my estimation

Player Start End RC
Derek Jeter 1995 2013 1730.1
Cal Ripken 1981 1997 1547.3
Honus Wagner 1901 1917 1361.4
Barry Larkin 1986 2004 1306.5
Alan Trammell 1977 1996 1282.0
Omar Vizquel 1989 2012 1261.3
Alex Rodriguez 1994 2005 1235.0
Ozzie Smith 1978 1996 1233.8
Miguel Tejada 1997 2011 1173.8
Luke Appling 1930 1950 1157.9



Thursday, September 25, 2014

1874 was business as ususal in the National Association of Baseball Players.  The Boston Redstockings won the pennent by 7.5 games with the New York Mutuals giving chase.  The best player on the team was Ross Barnes, the 2nd best player on the team was George Wright and the best pitcher in the League was Boston’s Al Spaulding.  Ross Barnes did not dominate the league in this season, however as he had in year past.  He was among the best defenders in the league, but Warren White was a bit better, winning the defensive MVP at the hot corner for the last place Baltimore Canaries.  He prevented 29 runs in just 47 games his team played.  Barnes prevented 32 runs, but his successful Red Stocking team played 70 games. 
Also, strictly speaking, Al Spaulding was not the best pitcher in the league for the season.  That player would have been Jack Manning, also of the last place Baltimore Canaries, but Manning only pitched about half of his team’s games, and Spaulding pitched all of his team’s games, so Spaulding gets the nod.  Manning was his team’s best hitter, and along with White, the only players of professional caliber playing for the team that season.  Boston Manager George Wright must have agreed, picking up Manning for the 1875 season, and pitching him for 17 games.  White moved to Chicago for the 1875 season. 
The best hitter for the season was the 3rd best 2nd baseman in baseball for 1874, Levi Meyerle.  Meyerle batted .394 with 19 doubles for the Chicago White Stockings.  He was better than Lipman Pike who lead the league in HRs from 1871-1873 each season.  He had only 1 dinger in 1874 but lead the league in doubles and patrolled the infield and outfield with equal skill and was a plus defender at both center field and shortstop.  He did plenty batting the ball to be my 1874 MVP over Ross Barnes by a hair.

My third and final All-Star is another 2nd baseman, Bill Craver.  In 1874 Craver was not quite as good as Barnes with a bat, and was not quite good as Barnes with his glove, but was the best player on his Philadelphia Whites and the third best player in the league for the season.

My 1874 rookie of the year was John Peters, batting .289 and playing plus defense for the Chicago White Stockings.

Best By Position Silver Slugger Fantastic Fielders
P Al Spalding Jack Manning
C Mike McGeary Cal McVey Mike McGeary
1B Bill Craver Jim O'Rourke Wes Fisler
2B Ross Barnes Bill Craver Ross Barnes
3B Davy Force Levi Meyerle Warren White
SS George Wright George Wright Davy Force
OF Lip Pike Ross Barnes John Hatfield
OF Levi Meyerle Lip Pike Johnny Ryan
OF Cal McVey John McMullin Lip Pike
MVP Lip Pike Levi Meyerle Warren White

Thursday, September 11, 2014

In 1873 Ross Barnes continued to lead his Boston Red Stockings team that won a 2nd championship while other players got the credit.  He won a 2nd batting title, and led the league in plate appearances, runs, doubles, triples, stolen bases and walks.  Boston did not play the sterling defense of the year before, possibly because they did not need to, putting 5 players on the silver slugger list and scoring 12.3 runs per game.  Barnes added another fantastic fielder award but lost out for the Defensive MVP to Chick Fulmer of the Philadelphia Whites.  He was however by far the league’s most effective hitter, creating 70 runs.

Joining Barnes on the 4 player 1873 all-star team is Boston Shortstop and Manager George Wright.  Like Barnes, his batting proficiency increased while his defense suffered.  He was a plus defender on the season, but he did not come close to Chick Fulmer’s performance getting to 5.69 balls per game vs. Fulmer’s 6.19.  Wright was the only shortstop for his team, while Fulmer was subbed for often.  Wright batted .387 and lead his team in Home Runs with 3.  He was the league’s 2nd most effective hitter with 50 run created.

Al Spaulding had an off season batting, unlike most of his teammates in Boston, but made up for it by being the best pitcher in the league.  He was also the league’s Silver Slugger, but not by the margin he had been in the previous year, batting .328 and creating 27 runs.  His defense was very bad going from being a plus defender in 1872 to giving up 10 extra runs due to poor defense while committing 22 errors.  On the season he struck out 50 and walked 36 and is my Most Valuable Pitcher for the season.

Rounding out the 1873 all-star team, for a 2nd year is Davy Force, playing the entire season for the 3rd place Baltimore Canaries.  He did not hit quite as well as Levi Merle (.586 vs .596 Runs Per Game) or field quite as well as Bob Ferguson (36.1 Runs Prevented vs 23.8) but he was the best combined 3rd baseman in the league and the 3rd best position player in the league.  He in fact finished just above Wright with 1.069 Runs per game vs Wright’s 1.032.

In 1873 Ross Barnes continued to lead his Boston Red Stockings team that won a 2nd championship while other players got the credit.  He won a 2nd batting title, and led the league in plate appearances, runs, doubles, triples, stolen bases and walks.  Boston did not play the sterling defense of the year before, possibly because they did not need to, putting 5 players on the silver slugger list and scoring 12.3 runs per game.  Barnes added another fantastic fielder award but lost out for the Defensive MVP to Chick Fulmer of the Philadelphia Whites.  He was however by far the league’s most effective hitter, creating 70 runs.

Joining Barnes on the 4 player 1873 all-star team is Boston Shortstop and Manager George Wright.  Like Barnes, his batting proficiency increased while his defense suffered.  He was a plus defender on the season, but he did not come close to Chick Fulmer’s performance getting to 5.69 balls per game vs. Fulmer’s 6.19.  Wright was the only shortstop for his team, while Fulmer was subbed for often.  Wright batted .387 and lead his team in Home Runs with 3.  He was the league’s 2nd most effective hitter with 50 run created.

Al Spaulding had an off season batting, unlike most of his teammates in Boston, but made up for it by being the best pitcher in the league.  He was also the league’s Silver Slugger, but not by the margin he had been in the previous year, batting .328 and creating 27 runs.  His defense was very bad going from being a plus defender in 1872 to giving up 10 extra runs due to poor defense while committing 22 errors.  On the season he struck out 50 and walked 36 and is my Most Valuable Pitcher for the season.

Rounding out the 1873 all-star team, for a 2nd year is Davy Force, playing the entire season for the 3rd place Baltimore Canaries.  He did not hit quite as well as Levi Merle (.586 vs .596 Runs Per Game) or field quite as well as Bob Ferguson (36.1 Runs Prevented vs 23.8) but he was the best combined 3rd baseman in the league and the 3rd best position player in the league.  He in fact finished just above Wright with 1.069 Runs per game vs Wright’s 1.032.


According to baseball’s rules, a player is eligible as a rookie as long as they bat less than 130 times and have less than 50 Innings pitched.  In 1872 there were players who played in every game and still had less than 130 at bats, and so I did not give out a rookie of the year.  In 1872 there were, in general more games and so I feel confident in giving out the first rookie of the year award to Jim O’Rourke.  He batted .349 for the Boston Red Stockings a year after posting 103 at bats for the 1872 for Midland.  He was the 2nd best 1st baseman in the league behind Cap Anson, and the 7th best hitter overall.  I’m sure Jim has a bright future.


Best By Position Silver Slugger Fantastic Fielders
P Al Spalding Al Spalding
C Cal McVey Deacon White Pop Snyder
1B Chick Fulmer Cap Anson Joe Start
2B Ross Barnes Ross Barnes Ross Barnes
3B Davy Force Levi Meyerle Bob Ferguson
SS George Wright George Wright Chick Fulmer
OF Count Gedney Charlie Pabor Count Gedney
OF Tom York Jim O'Rourke Tom York
OF Dave Eggler Cal McVey George Bechtel
MVP Ross Barnes Ross Barnes Chick Fulmer



Monday, September 8, 2014

Al Spaulding played with the 1871 Boston Red Stockings and would continue to play with them until 1875.  The play of Ross Barnes would put him in the Hall of Fame. 

In 1872, Ross Barnes would hit .430 and lead the league in offensive runs created for the 39-8 first place Boston Team, and only *Cap Anson would come anywhere close (45.3 for Barnes vs 40.1 for Anson) but Barnes would also lead the league in defensive runs prevented with 44.3.  His teammate as Shortstop (Barnes played 2nd base) would have 43.0.  This Pair of defenders helped Boston turn .643 of balls hit into play into outs.  While that number would make any team playing today blush, Boston did this without gloves of any kind, and, the next best team converted at .620  In 1872, any pitcher pitching behind the Boston Fielders would have looked spectacular. 

Not that Al Spaulding was terrible.  He was not the best pitcher in the league that season. 
That honor would have gone to Dick McBride of the 2th place 30-14 Philadelphia Athletics.  McBride had more strikeouts (44-26) less walks (27-26) and less Wild Pitches (10-39)  Spaulding was more valuable to his team however with a .354 batting average vs. McBride’s .287 and Spaulding had 14 errors on the mound vs. McBride’s 24.  Spaulding was the most valuable Pitcher.

Have I made is clear, that for the 2nd year in a row, Ross Barnes was the Most Valuable Player.  Good, just making sure.  Ranking just behind him was George Wright, who, by 1872 standards was a star hitter and by current standards was a bit of a weak hitter, but by 1872 standards, he was a wizard in the field.  We can’t know what he would have done if he had had a baseball glove, but I am sure he would have done well.  He just wasn’t quite as good as his teammate. 

The 4th all-star for 1872 is Davy Force, playing for both the Troy Haymakers and Baltimore Canaries.  He hit .418 with 2 walks for his teams, but was only a plus hitter in my estimation, but a very good defender.  Think Evan Longoria perhaps.  In 1872 he was 22 years old, so definitely a player to watch.

Catching is hard, and in 1872 as today, teams carry more catchers than any other position player.  Catchers will make my all-star teams in proportion to their contributions on the field, and in 1872 my all-star selection is Mike McGeary.  Although McGeary was a part time catcher (and part time shortstop) he played his position well and hit well enough to be included as an all-star.

Note: a player’s inclusion on the list below does not make him an all-star, even if he is the best for his position.

Note: Since the baseball glove has not yet been invented, I list players as Fantastic Fielders instead of Gold Glovers.

Best By Position
Silver Slugger
Fantastic Fielders
P
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
OF
OF
MVP

*Correction Cap Anson was referred to a rookie in 1872 because according to Major League Baseball's current rules, he was; he had less than 130 at bats the previous season of 1871, but since he played in all 25 of his team's games that season, it seems to me to be stretching the definition.  Certainly he was young though.

Saturday, September 6, 2014


The First in a 144+ part series, the 1871 season.

The 1871 baseball season is the first season of the “National Association” and the first season where we have reliable statistics.  It is also the start of the Ross Barnes era in my humble opinion. 

Barnes had a season that was arguably the best of the year, especially according to modern sensibilities and, also according to my sensibilities on defense.  He did not win a batting title, but he did finish 3rd in times on base and first in runs scored for his 3rd place 22-10 Boston Red Stocking’s baseball team.  While he was doing this at the plate, able to prevent more runs than most other players in the league, making less errors (.854 fielding percentage vs a league average .833) and exhibiting more range at both 2nd base and shortstop giving him, by my calculations 23.5 offensive runs – the most in the league and 20.5 defensive runs – the 2nd most in the league.  The combined total of 44.1 runs created also led the league.  He wins his first 1871 MVP award, voted on by me.

In 1871 Jimmy Woods was equally adept in the field, with 19.0 runs in his 2nd place 19-8 Chicago White Stockings team.  That is more defensive runs per game than Barnes and a slightly lower offensive runs per game.  He batted .378 and had 11 walks on the season.  Barnes played 2nd Base most of the season, but I will move him to SS to make room on my all star team for Woods.

To make my all star team, my next player will have to be the DH?  He did lead the league in offensive runs created and played above average defense for the Boston Red Stockings, but was only able to play in ½ the teams games.  George Wright is the third and final position player to make my 1871 all star team, but I think he will have to play 3rd base.  Levi Meyerle had more total runs created, but Meyerle was a poor fielder, while Wright was above average.  Also, Wright contributed about 20 innings pitched

In 1871, a teams’ pitcher was expected to pitch just about every inning for his team (and had to, by rule, throw underhanded), but a pitcher is still active in every play, and in days past, as in the present, a pitcher’s most important job is to pitch.  In the American League today, his only jobs are to pitch and to field his position.  In the National League 9/10s of his job is to pitch and field his position, but 1/10 now as in the past, a player’s job was and is to also hit the baseball.  In 1871 Rynie Walters was not one of the best pitchers in the League for his 16-17 New York Mutuals.  At pitching he was mediocre.  He was, however, the 2nd best hitter in the league that season with a .370 batting average and leading the league with 44 RBIs.  This fact raised him from a run of the mill 8th best pitcher in a league with 9 teams to the best total player at the position for his team.  Walthers was a pre National Association star, but it would be the last season where he was a star player.

These are my all-stars                               
Best By Position
Silver Slugger
Fantastic Fielders
P
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
OF
OF



Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Writing this blog, I intend to continue to explain exactly how and where I get my stats from but I also want to get started on one of the more fun things I have in mind, which is to blog every single season of Major League Baseball from 1871 to the present.  The rules in previous years, was, of course, not the same as it is today, but the statistics record is complete enough for my purposes.  In 1871 they did not use fielding gloves, and made many more errors than players are credited for today, but they kept track of who made the errors.  The pitchers threw underhand and pitched every game unless they were injured, but they still recorded who was pitching and what the stats were against them.  The statistical rules for deciding who were the best and players seem to apply to that time almost as well as today. 

As appears on my website (but not this blog) all stats are adjusted for quality of play, and my way to judge quality of play is by pitcher’s batting average.  It is assumed that pitchers, in terms of batting represent average batters, in that if you or I (at the ages of 20-40) were to train every day to hit a baseball, and were to attempt to hit a baseball 1 day in 5, and the person reading this is not a person who has ever been paid to hit a baseball, we would perform about the same as major league pitchers.  This assumption bears out pretty well.  We do not see the dotted I graph that we see when we look at batter’s statistics with a mode high above a normal appearing graph, but that has a steeper slope before the dot of the I and a less steep right portion.  An example of a dotted i. selection graph appears in the previous post.  This chart is also in the previous post.



Another measure of quality of play is standard deviation of the players in the league.  As the quality of play increases, the difference between the average and elite player decreases and the standard deviation becomes smaller.  Here is Pitching RPO – unadjusted (for the numbers I use, pitcher ROP is set to 0) with standard deviation graphed together.  The correlation coeficent of the 2 scores (Player RPG for players with 250+ AB and all pitcher hitting) is .8601.



The Blue is Pitcher's Runs Per Game and the orange is Batter's Standard Deviation for players with 250+ At Bats.

As I said parenthetically, the way that I adjust for this is to set Pitchers RPOs to 0 and so subtract the pitcher RPO for each player for each season by a pitcher’s average RPO.  The results of this is that Babe Ruth still one of the top season of all time in 1923 (behind a couple of pre 1900 seasons and Barry Bond’s 2002) and the top seasons are a good mix of old-time and new seasons, as one might expect if one is picking evenly between top players who are 5+ standard deviations from normal. (normal being pitchers, not other batters) If one selects 2196 of the best batting seasons of all time (Giving one 15.43 batters per season.  The seasons of the 2196 are clustered near the present (There are more people in the United States today and more people in the world who want to play Professional Baseball, so this is also what one would expect.  There are less players and the game was less relatively popular, and so there are far fewer top season in the past.  When I select my all-star teams, this is reflected by those numbers.  The number of players I select will be a rolling average of the number of top seasons. (Except for the years 1943-45 when the quality of play did go down.  I will take an average for these seasons.) 


I do not at this time adjust pitcher’s records because I have no evidence that pitchers have become better over time.  I guess that is a subject for another blog post.